The Times: Tech column - 3G phones/Pic to HTML/PC philanthropy
It's an odd business, innovation. You invest billions in a communications network and develop award-winning content, then along comes human nature and spoils everything. So much for m-commerce - shopping by mobile - and Wap downloads: what we really want phones and PCs for, it seems, is to communicate. How very ungrateful.
Why else would we have sent 12.3 billion text messages in the UK last year - a service the phone companies originally rejected as a clumsy gimmick? For the same reason that we defiantly log on to friend-locating websites rather than high-fashion e-tailers. Too often, technology businesses forget that their products, however groundbreaking, will succeed only if they meet a consumer demand. Is there a lesson here for the mobile phone networks as they frantically ask what we'll actually want from third-generation (3G) handsets?
Here's our tip: start with the basic human needs, not the technology. People want to interact, to simplify their lives and to retrieve content of their choosing. Industry PRs might froth about network capacity and baud rates, but convenience is what matters to the rest of us - just as we watch TV for specific programmes, not a particular delivery mechanism.
Technobabble has been studying some of the applications the mobile companies are planning for 3G phones. With almost four times as many mobiles as PCs sold last year, the stakes are high: already 650 million of the world's billion cellphone customers use GSM (Global System for Mobile communications) technology, and within three years data rather than voice calls are expected to provide a third of the networks' revenues.
But will we want what they'll be offering? We will certainly warm to picture messaging - the use of inbuilt digital cameras to send images from phone to phone. This is bound to catch on, whether for sending back holiday postcards or sharing new pictures of a baby. Ericsson's T68 can already send pictures, and last week Nokia said its 7650 model with inbuilt camera will be out this spring. What a simple way to enhance communication.
Location-based services will also have some success, although not necessarily in the ways that phone companies predict. Yes, life will become easier if the phone tells us where we are and provides a map. We might also want to know that a friend is near by, or that our children are playing truant. But do we really need the ability to "geo-cache" a message - linking it to a location so that, for instance, we can warn colleagues that a restaurant is overrated? Texting is just as easy. Plus, if our phone tells the network where we are, won't advertisers target us in ever-more sophisticated ways? "They'll be able to segment their markets down to an individual," says Phil Stenton, of Hewlett-Packard's research labs."How we control that data will be one of the biggest issues we'll face."
Human nature being what it is, pornography will undoubtedly provide a lucrative revenue stream for network owners, as will instant betting during sports matches. Travelling workers will benefit from being permanently linked to corporate networks, and commuters might use phones to download MP3 music tracks.
But there are plenty of other promised applications worth treating rather more sceptically. Mitsubishi Trium is promising phones that tell women "when you are most likely to conceive" and "when to apply your lipstick". Gee, how did they cope until now? Payment-by-phone may also take a while to catch on, particularly if handset thefts remain crime flavour of the month.
Wap taught that "clever" technology cannot be imposed from above if human beings don't warm to it. Yes, some 3G applications will take off, but that will be up to the users, not the networks. "You can't predict the applications people will want," admitted Mike Short, director of industry at mmO2, at an Industrial Society conference last week. "You've just got to give them room to choose."
In other words, it's your call.
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We're all ones and zeros in the digital age. But what, exactly, would you look like as a combination of 1s and 0s? The latest cult time-wasting website lets you find out. "Pic to HTML" (confusingly, at http://pic3html.vvv.tf) takes an image of your choice (such as your face) and instantly turns it into a page of numbers. It's based on a scripting language called Pike, and there's absolutely no use for it beyond distracting your colleagues. A return, then, to the good old days of the internet ...
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What have you done today to combat anthrax? As scientists demand ever-greater computing power in search of answers, they want you to share your PC's unused processing capacity. In a trend known as "PC philanthropy" - you donate computing resources rather than cash - the University of Oxford is working with Intel in the hope of treating and beating anthrax and, eventually, cancer. You simply download a screensaver (www.intel.com/cure) that puts your computer to work when it's otherwise idle, and then wait to claim your stake in the Nobel prize.
They call it a "peer-to-peer" program, but it is actually a smart example of distributed computing - the use of masses of spare capacity that has most famously searched for extra-terrestrial life. The anthrax team still has 3.5 billion molecular com£left to test, but who knows - it could be your laptop that cracks it.
(The Times, January 28 2002)
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