The Times: Be your own election forecaster
By David Rowan
EVER fancied yourself as an informed election forecaster? This year, thanks to the internet, all the tools you need are just a mouse-click away. From spread-betting markets to poll-crunching programs, an avalanche of online data lets you monitor voting intentions as never before.
2005 will be remembered as Britain's first bloggers' election, but it has also empowered a nation of amateur psephologists. To see why, log on to http://PoliticalBetting.com, a buzzing resource aimed at political gamblers.
Punters are staking millions of pounds on election bets and it is only natural for them to want continually to hone their research. So they can thank Mike Smithson, a former BBC journalist and Liberal Democrat councillor, for creating a site that obsessively tracks where they are putting their money. Using voting projections from the main spread-betting sites, Smithson creates daily "balance of money" predictions that are at least as compelling as conventional polls.
Last night, his survey of the betting markets had Labour's share of the vote at 37.4 per cent, the Conservatives' at 34.1 per cent, and the LibDems' at 21.6 per cent. And all, remember, based on hard cash rather than an interviewee's possibly dishonest response to a pollster. You can also research the parties' standing, and that of individual candidates, by going directly to the sites of spread-betting firms such as IG Index (www.igsport.com) or Spreadfair (http://cantor.spreadfair.com). But be warned: anoraks may find it dangerously addictive to track punters' preferences in real time.
If you prefer to base your predictions on more traditional polls, then start at Polling Report (www.pollingreport.co.uk), an impressively thorough archive run by an Anthony Wells, who admits to being a Conservative supporter but lets the numbers speak for themselves. Or, if you feel daunted by the pure volume of polling data here - on everything from tax to ID cards - turn to Electoral Calculus (www.electoralcalculus.co.uk) for a simpler overview.
This site is run by Martin Baxter, who mathematically models derivatives for Nomura International in the City. He uses the same scientific analysis of polls and electoral geography to predict what would happen if the election were held tomorrow.
On current trends, based on 6,974 people's responses to various polls over a week, Mr Baxter predicts another Labour landslide, with 391 seats, compared with 172 for the Conservatives and 55 for the LibDems. Central Office may question the methodology, but as a free resource it offers an intriguing meta-analysis.
If you fancy making your own election forecasts, UK-Elect (www.ukelect.com) offers a free trial version of a number-crunching program that has been updated specifically for the current campaign. It uses recent polling data and the outcomes of past general elections to help you to determine whether Oliver Letwin will keep his seat or the prospects of a hung Parliament (minimal, the software says).
Its latest forecast is not that different from Mr Baxter's, giving Labour 368, the Conservatives 180, and the LibDems 67.
If, after all this, you are still uncertain about your own voting intentions, turn to http://TheyWorkForYou.com to put your own former MP to the test. This non-partisan, volunteer-run site mines parliamentary data to hold them to account.
But perhaps the most astute guide to individual politicians' current standing with the voting public is a free online trading game called Polidex (www.polidex.co.uk), which determines the "price" of an MP according to what others are prepared to pay.
In a shock result last night, Michael Howard, trading at £74.97 a share, had edged almost 50p ahead of Tony Blair. But what is bound to prompt a crisis meeting at No 10 this morning is news that another MP, at £82.50, is now the nation's choice. Congratulations, Gordon Brown.
(The Times, April 21 2005)
EVER fancied yourself as an informed election forecaster? This year, thanks to the internet, all the tools you need are just a mouse-click away. From spread-betting markets to poll-crunching programs, an avalanche of online data lets you monitor voting intentions as never before.
2005 will be remembered as Britain's first bloggers' election, but it has also empowered a nation of amateur psephologists. To see why, log on to http://PoliticalBetting.com, a buzzing resource aimed at political gamblers.
Punters are staking millions of pounds on election bets and it is only natural for them to want continually to hone their research. So they can thank Mike Smithson, a former BBC journalist and Liberal Democrat councillor, for creating a site that obsessively tracks where they are putting their money. Using voting projections from the main spread-betting sites, Smithson creates daily "balance of money" predictions that are at least as compelling as conventional polls.
Last night, his survey of the betting markets had Labour's share of the vote at 37.4 per cent, the Conservatives' at 34.1 per cent, and the LibDems' at 21.6 per cent. And all, remember, based on hard cash rather than an interviewee's possibly dishonest response to a pollster. You can also research the parties' standing, and that of individual candidates, by going directly to the sites of spread-betting firms such as IG Index (www.igsport.com) or Spreadfair (http://cantor.spreadfair.com). But be warned: anoraks may find it dangerously addictive to track punters' preferences in real time.
If you prefer to base your predictions on more traditional polls, then start at Polling Report (www.pollingreport.co.uk), an impressively thorough archive run by an Anthony Wells, who admits to being a Conservative supporter but lets the numbers speak for themselves. Or, if you feel daunted by the pure volume of polling data here - on everything from tax to ID cards - turn to Electoral Calculus (www.electoralcalculus.co.uk) for a simpler overview.
This site is run by Martin Baxter, who mathematically models derivatives for Nomura International in the City. He uses the same scientific analysis of polls and electoral geography to predict what would happen if the election were held tomorrow.
On current trends, based on 6,974 people's responses to various polls over a week, Mr Baxter predicts another Labour landslide, with 391 seats, compared with 172 for the Conservatives and 55 for the LibDems. Central Office may question the methodology, but as a free resource it offers an intriguing meta-analysis.
If you fancy making your own election forecasts, UK-Elect (www.ukelect.com) offers a free trial version of a number-crunching program that has been updated specifically for the current campaign. It uses recent polling data and the outcomes of past general elections to help you to determine whether Oliver Letwin will keep his seat or the prospects of a hung Parliament (minimal, the software says).
Its latest forecast is not that different from Mr Baxter's, giving Labour 368, the Conservatives 180, and the LibDems 67.
If, after all this, you are still uncertain about your own voting intentions, turn to http://TheyWorkForYou.com to put your own former MP to the test. This non-partisan, volunteer-run site mines parliamentary data to hold them to account.
But perhaps the most astute guide to individual politicians' current standing with the voting public is a free online trading game called Polidex (www.polidex.co.uk), which determines the "price" of an MP according to what others are prepared to pay.
In a shock result last night, Michael Howard, trading at £74.97 a share, had edged almost 50p ahead of Tony Blair. But what is bound to prompt a crisis meeting at No 10 this morning is news that another MP, at £82.50, is now the nation's choice. Congratulations, Gordon Brown.
(The Times, April 21 2005)
posted by David Rowan at Thursday, April 21, 2005
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