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Saturday, April 30, 2005

Trendsurfing: Corporate trendspotters (The Times)

By David Rowan

Uh-oh: we seem to have competition. After eight months devotedly sorting the buzz from the fads, we had assumed that a weekly glance at Trendsurfing was all a corporate futurist would need to plan ahead. But now, we discover, there's a growing army of in-house trendspotters paid simply to stare past the office photocopier into the blue sky ahead. Even Hallmark Cards, for goodness' sake, employs a company "trendsetter" to "monitor the social milieu".

It does all sound rather grand. Whereas this column relies unfashionably on talking to people, meeting them, and acting on tips from our insightful readership, the chief trends expert at Hallmark gets to "synthesise her observations, expertise and experience to evaluate the strength and importance of cultural movement". Marita Wesely-Clough, we are informed, "reads virtually every new book and article" on social change, "tries to refute it or take it to the next level in her own mind", and then hangs out down at the shops, "scrutinising language, dress, colour preferences and media to add to her repertoire of filters". All that to help the public say Happy Mother's Day?

Actually, behind Ms Wesely-Clough's coma-inducing jargon there lie some fascinating insights. Take her newest report, "Evolving Trends and Countertrends for 2005 and Beyond". Cut away all her "shifting paradigms", and you're left with some lively ideas:

Aspirational luxury: we're too sophisticated nowadays to be "ordinary" consumers. We'll pay over the odds to distinguish ourselves through what we buy, so the growth opportunities lie in offering personalised cars, suits or holidays. "Handcrafted and customised, or rare, almost museum-quality super luxe items will be in greater demand," Wesely-Clough predicts.

China's next cultural revolution: with China the world's newest economic powerhouse, expect an Eastern influence in everything from financial markets to manufacturing processes.

New pressures promoting social conformity: in our fast-paced, media-saturated culture, too much genuine choice may threaten the status quo. Wesely-Clough identifies a growing "singlemindedness" within politics and commerce to "suppress diversity of thought outside the norm or stamp out the spark that could ignite radical thinking". She calls it the "push for mono-mind", which must impress the clients no end. At least with this column you get editors who remove that sort of guff.

A loss of national empathy: it's no great surprise that the internet and television have eroded perceptions of distance. Now, the woman from Hallmark says, the process is affecting our emotional life. We feel genuine excitement when conjoined twins are separated thousands of miles away; we grieve when strangers in Asia are killed in a tsunami. "What once was family is now public, national and global," she concludes.

Neurotic isolation: with terrifying headlines a mouse-click away, some of us will respond with "a pervasive paranoia" and shut ourselves away. An entire demographic, she suggests, will be left "feeling like an exposed nerve that no longer can function".

Still, there's bound to be an opportunity here for Hallmark. "Sorry to Hear About Your Pervasive Paranoia" cards, anyone?

(The Times Magazine, April 30 2005)