Trendsurfing: Life in 2020
By David Rowan
If you want to know what life will be like in 2020, you could listen to muggins here pontificating about solar-powered skycars and personal DNA infusions. Or you could ask 1,656 well-placed executives in 100 countries what will happen to business, health and the environment over the next 14 years. Luckily, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has done the legwork, offering a detailed trend-forecasting survey in a report titled "Foresight 2020". Sure, you could read all 96 pages at www.eiu.com/foresight2020, but you're busy, so here are half a dozen lessons that may just make your fortune.
More of us, and older: By 2020, the EIU predicts, the world's population will have risen from 6.42 billion to 7.43 billion. That's a lot of potential new friends. Sadly, more of them will be older and dependent on a shrinking workforce, what with increased life expectancy and declining fertility rates. On a measure of old-age dependency ratios - the proportion of over-65s compared to those of working age - some countries (such as Japan and some European states) are in big trouble, risking slowing economies, pensions crises and financial-market instability. The result: pressure for later retirement ages, more immigration, and more women at work.
The grey wallet: This demographic shift means new opportunities for smart entrepreneurs. Older consumers will need targeted products, and already companies are re-focusing. Unicharm, a Japanese nappy manufacturer, is moving into nappies for adults and even dogs; Dreams, the bed-maker, sees new profits in adjustable beds for the elderly. Bad news, though, for fast-food chains and mortgage brokers: the youth market on which they rely will be shrinking.
Personal chemistry: With machines running more of our lives, the human touch will give businesses an advantage. Personal service and creative insight will matter more than rules and processes in the future, the survey concludes. And even though we'll be managing our finances online, we'll still rather talk to a real person when arranging mortgages and pensions.
The healthcare (and disease) boom: For a surefire business opportunity, target healthcare products and services at this ageing population. We'll be spending proportionately more on health: according to the boss of Novartis, the US will be spending a fifth of its GDP on medical care, up from 16 per cent today. Medical tourism, too, will grow fast. And if you're a fashion designer, start making clothes to flatter the obese. This sector will only get bigger.
Local energy generation: Power that's generated in your neighbourhood - known as "distributed power" - is set to be a big trend. We'll be fitting solar panels and fuel cells at home and at work. It's already starting to happen in Germany and Scandinavia.
Rise of the creative company: Good news for the office innovator: thanks to automation and outsourcing, your creative brain will be a company's most prized asset. Businesses will learn how to measure and incentivise the best "knowledge workers" so that the best ideas rise to the top, and new armies of consultants will swarm around companies to measure creative thinking.
The 1,656 executives could be wrong, of course. But by 2020, so many of them will be wearing adult nappies that it would seem churlish to complain.
(The Times Magazine, May 27 2006)
If you want to know what life will be like in 2020, you could listen to muggins here pontificating about solar-powered skycars and personal DNA infusions. Or you could ask 1,656 well-placed executives in 100 countries what will happen to business, health and the environment over the next 14 years. Luckily, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has done the legwork, offering a detailed trend-forecasting survey in a report titled "Foresight 2020". Sure, you could read all 96 pages at www.eiu.com/foresight2020, but you're busy, so here are half a dozen lessons that may just make your fortune.
More of us, and older: By 2020, the EIU predicts, the world's population will have risen from 6.42 billion to 7.43 billion. That's a lot of potential new friends. Sadly, more of them will be older and dependent on a shrinking workforce, what with increased life expectancy and declining fertility rates. On a measure of old-age dependency ratios - the proportion of over-65s compared to those of working age - some countries (such as Japan and some European states) are in big trouble, risking slowing economies, pensions crises and financial-market instability. The result: pressure for later retirement ages, more immigration, and more women at work.
The grey wallet: This demographic shift means new opportunities for smart entrepreneurs. Older consumers will need targeted products, and already companies are re-focusing. Unicharm, a Japanese nappy manufacturer, is moving into nappies for adults and even dogs; Dreams, the bed-maker, sees new profits in adjustable beds for the elderly. Bad news, though, for fast-food chains and mortgage brokers: the youth market on which they rely will be shrinking.
Personal chemistry: With machines running more of our lives, the human touch will give businesses an advantage. Personal service and creative insight will matter more than rules and processes in the future, the survey concludes. And even though we'll be managing our finances online, we'll still rather talk to a real person when arranging mortgages and pensions.
The healthcare (and disease) boom: For a surefire business opportunity, target healthcare products and services at this ageing population. We'll be spending proportionately more on health: according to the boss of Novartis, the US will be spending a fifth of its GDP on medical care, up from 16 per cent today. Medical tourism, too, will grow fast. And if you're a fashion designer, start making clothes to flatter the obese. This sector will only get bigger.
Local energy generation: Power that's generated in your neighbourhood - known as "distributed power" - is set to be a big trend. We'll be fitting solar panels and fuel cells at home and at work. It's already starting to happen in Germany and Scandinavia.
Rise of the creative company: Good news for the office innovator: thanks to automation and outsourcing, your creative brain will be a company's most prized asset. Businesses will learn how to measure and incentivise the best "knowledge workers" so that the best ideas rise to the top, and new armies of consultants will swarm around companies to measure creative thinking.
The 1,656 executives could be wrong, of course. But by 2020, so many of them will be wearing adult nappies that it would seem churlish to complain.
(The Times Magazine, May 27 2006)
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